SVR Storms Possible over Northeastern KS this Afternoon?

Instability is increasing again this afternoon in the wake of the departing complex of showers and storms from earlier this morning, which is raising the likelihood that we will see convection redevelop along and ahead of an approaching surface cold front. MLCAPE values are expected to climb into the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range this afternoon, highest near the NE/KS border. Given deep layer shear values are in the 30 to 40 kt range with a strong low level jet, expect we will see some scattered storms develop in the mid to late afternoon hours, especially across northern/northeastern portions of northeast KS.  Given the strong mean southwesterly flow, any strong storms that develop ahead of the approaching cold front should quickly move northeastward and out of the area. The best tornado threat should remain just to the north of the area closer to the stalled boundary to the north of the region in southern NE. Expect our main threat will be from damaging wind and large hail, as there appears to be good -10 to -30 degree C CAPE and more associated with a developing line of storms late this afternoon into the evening (which could extend southwest to northeast across the area) as the front shifts eastward across the area.

Lincoln County, CO Severe

A couple of storms developed off of the high terrain south of the palmer divide near Pueblo’s forecast area. One even registered a +16 sigma jump. Although looking at the raw data, the drastic jump was probably because the relative sample size was quite small and any strong jump would be portrayed as impressive. Also of note, the +16 sigma occurred just as the updraft split occurred and the cell divided.

The eastern storm did show high sigma gains and the raw data went along with that. The strong lightning jump with 4 sigma occurred just before there was a strong jump in ProbSevere from 75% to 93%. The storm was already warned on based on base reflectivity data, but, it helped confirm that there was, in fact, a warnable storm.

-Shasta and Mr. Snow

Prob SEV and DTA product working well

Prob Severe and ENI DTA product are providing a good first look right now as to where the most dangerous/severe TS are located as NMRS clusters have develops over the Southern part of OAX CWA.

Severe Omaha Charley

Have a quickly developing cell in our southern CWA.

Decided to issue a severe based on a quickly growing lightning time series (with little change in areal extent) as well as a high ProbSevere.

Meso Discussion Omaha Charley

Have a strong gradient of temperatures across the region this hour, with upper 50s in the north and mid 80s in our one clear spot in the southeast forecast area.

Surface low is to the southwest with a frontal boundary extending northeast into our southern CWA.  Quite a bit of shear aloft, with SRH from the SPC mesoanalysis in the 200-300 range across the south, higher in the southeast and 0-1 km bulk shear 10 in the west and 25 in the east.  These would lead to potential for supercells to develop in the warmer air, and perhaps allow for tornado development close to the frontal boundary.

LAP sounder data is not too high for TT, with CAPE and LI more indicative of storm potential in the south and southeast.  Have a PW gradient with higher values to the east.

clockwise starting with upper-left panel: CAPE, LI, Total Totals, K-Index

clockwise starting with upper-left: LPW .7-.3, TPW, LPW .9-sfc, LPW .9-.7

CI product

CI product already showing a 89% prob in southern OAX…radar already showing storms building with lightning

Daily Summary: Week 5, Day 3 (June 10, 2015)

Warning activities for Wednesday of Week 5 took place in the Chicago, Hastings and Rapid City CWA's. Once again, significant convective activity was not present in any of the LMA's, so PGLM products were not able to receive an evaluation.

- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison

GOES-R LAP
- Absolute values of CAPE were way off when compared to RAP, SPC mesoanalysis, RAOBS

NUCAPS
- Finer details would still be nice to see in the profiles

GOES-R CI
- Mid to high clouds obscured development in Chicago
- Once developing convection broke through the mid-level cloud deck, 80—90 % probabilities appeared
- Didn’t get many signals today in the Hastings CWA, so wasn’t useful. Thin cirrus were present

ProbSevere
- Our storms were so explosive, once it got close to 50, we would warn from radar because it was going so fast
- I like how if you’re focusing in on one cell (with a feeder band), watching outflow interaction, and then another cell developed nearby. It keeps you aware that you should go look at that now
- Especially valuable when you have lots of stuff on radar
- I could see it being on a SA panel
- Storm coordinator could use to make sure all relevant storms are covered
- I was looking at a storm that was weakening, so I focused my attention elsewhere… looked back a little later and saw the weakening storm was back to 80, telling me that I better take another look … good SA
- If you can’t look at all tilts, its seeing column for you
- New storm popped up when we were focused on other storms; this flagged us, quickly put severe on it
- Towards end of day, outflow boundaries collided, immediately flagged it to pink, then collapsed

SRSOR and 1-min OTD
- In Chicago, you could see where the front was and where cu were developing under a mid level cloud deck. Could see CI as it was occurring below those clouds.
- With new cells forming under cirrus canopy, you could see it bubble right through the anvil blowoff
- Saw outflow on w edge of convection
- Better anticipate where new stuff will develop
- Draws me to an area of new updrafts, where should I look
- No question – I will have it loaded when in warning situations, keeping an eye on it
- Good situational awareness display to have the 1min loop loaded
- For training, it would be most helpful to see examples of various phenomenon from the folks who have already been using the data
- As storms were developing, a feeder band was being ingested into the main cell, we were watching it for new development, and stuff did develop along it. Wouldn’t have seen it quite as well with 15 min data

Lightning jump
- Used with probsevere
- Stuff going from nothing to severe fast. 8sigma jump noted
- Sometimes I miss significant jumps
- We would like this to be incorporated into probsevere

Does this justify our warnings?

Prob Severe over 90%…our warnings cover it!

Wacha/Inthecards

A very strong cornfed storm

Just after 7pm a monster storm developed southwest of Hastings, NE. At 732pm the storm intensified to near 70 dbz up to 32kft! The MESH product showed just over 2″ hail and the RSO showed nice bubbling of the overshooting top on visible satellite. This was definitely picked up by the overshooting top algorithm. Ironically, the lightning was never really all that impressive, but did hold steady. The lightning level really dropped by the time the maximum storm strength was reached.

(New)CAPS post

Pardon my puns. Mr Snow and I were testing out the NUCAPS product now that things have settled down in our DMA. We selected different locations and got different results.

Compared to surface obs, the NUCAPS temperature did not need to be altered, but the moisture did, by about 6 degrees Celsius.  This change took my MU parcel cape from 15J/kg to ~2000J/kg. SPC meso had it closer to 1500J/kg. The EL also doubled from 6 to 12 km.

We did have storms just SW of this area, however, as they lifted NE, they weakened.

-Brick Tamland