LMA ColorTable

Out of the 3 available colortables for LMA data I prefer the “LMA_default” as shown below. It clearly highlights the greatest density. The other colortables have more gradation, highlighting lower values which don’t seem to be meaningful. The colortable with yellows/greens is non-intuitive – in other words, it not clear at a glance which colors represent higher values.

-snowstrm

West Texas Soundings

First try at comparing modified soundings.

1. 12Z Midland RAOB modified to 30/18, yielding 4250 SBCAPE (3800 with ob at time of earlier NUCAPS)

2. Afternoon NUCAPS nearest LBB (designated CWA today) modified to 26/19, yielding 3900 SBCAPE.

LBB is appx 125 mi N of MAF, but in reasonably similar environment.  Despite other differences, feature at 700 mb appears in both.

3.  Next, NUCAPS afternoon sounding nearest MAF (in relatively cloudless area).  Not modified.

4.  And finally, for comparison, the observed 0Z sounding at KMAF.
SBCAPE at 4200.  The drying of the air at 600-800 mb since 12Z is reflected by intermediate NUCAPS soundings.

-Holaday

LUB boundaries

Overlay of LAP derived CAPE and SRSOR visible imagery at 23Z  shows the key boundaries in and near the LUB CWA.

One, N-S, slowly progressing east.  Another, stationary, oriented NW-SE, the air cooled by earlier convection with a northeasterly surface flow.

-Holaday

Lightning Jump Sigma 6 leads to…

A cell developing over the southern portion of LUB CWA showed a Lignting Jump value of 6 sigma. Upon further investigation it went from almost no lightning (2nd image below) to  a flash density of 35. The storm proceeded to quickly pulse down (with a  decrease in lightning). Thus…the sigma 6 in this case was not indicative of severe. The storm followed the same trend as most of the isolated convection in LUB today.

One suggestion with the Lightning Jump Algorithm/pGLM data is to be able to display a time series as is done with the ENI Lightning Data. Another idea to better gage trends in Flash Extent Density and Summary products is to show previous values when sampling with the mouse pointer (or a change in value from previous reading).



-snowstrm

Lightning Jump and pGLM Flash Density Displays

The display of the Lightning Jump sigma and pGLM Density Flash displays are most useful when overlayed on radar or satellite data as below. In this case the solid filled in colors block the underlaid image. Perhaps it would be more effective to create an outline?

-snowstrm

SVR in AMA CWA at 2230UTC

Issued an SVR for a storm which has observed (estimated) 1″ hail and 60-65mph winds over an hour prior to this in Randall County. The storm maintained intensity as it continued eastward.  ProbSevere held steady at over 90% with MESH over 2″.

-snowstrm

GOES-R CI performance across FWD

GOES R-CI has had a tough time detecting CI across eastern portions (rectangle) and far NW portions of the CWA so far due to more in the way of convective debris and cirrus in these areas. Those areas are where the severe storms have occurred.

It has done well detecting null areas for development. CI has never gotten above 60 percent in the “clearer” areas (scalloped area)…which based on skill threshold should not have had CI.

Pickles

Overshooting Top Not Captured

2225z super rapid scan with overshooting top (OT) performed fairly well for a long lived cluster of severe storms across southern Oklahoma. However, it missed one persistent OT (circled).

Severe storm in Young county

Image of a severe thunderstorm in Young county in the extreme northwest portion of the DFW CWA.  This cell had a 94% SVR PROB rate with 62 dbz to 45000 feet.  This cell also saw a good spike in the Earth Networks lightning time series.

LUB SRSOR visible animation

About 21Z as storms develop in Castro County and Lynn County

Click to animate

And about 2130Z as anvil blows off in Lynn County

-Holaday