CI GOES-W vs E again

This is another example of GOES E vs W seeing CI. In this case, GOES-W showed a fairly large area of 79% while goes east showed little if anything. These clouds did end up developing into echoes well over 35 dBz within 30 minutes after these images were taken.

jca

Blog 10 June 5 HSV Area

Looking at the severe storms over North AL with 1km vis and OT detect overlaid.

The cell which has produced a lot of severe storm reports on the TN AL border is detected Storm near Chattooga Cty. GA (which moved out of Jackson AL) also has OT detected.

I have circled some obvious misses that are visible on the 1km vis. Storm near Boaz in Marshall AL has produced minor damage and high wind gusts and is also missed.

D Satterfield 2240Z 5 June

*** I looked closely at this case in the IR, and am surprised the algorithm didn't pick up on those misses. They were well within the thresholds (OT temp, anvil temp, difference), at least from what sampling of the storms I did. - BL

Prob Severe Tool Fail

Below are numerous images of the Prob Severe tool doing a poor job with severe winds in the Huntsville area and it had inaccurate location placement of the Prob Severe area as well. Perhaps the Prob Severe tool is best utilized for severe hail and possibly tornadoes, but it definitely did a poor job with winds.

-KP

Blog 9 June 5 HSV Area

Image lost do to network issues-

Have spent time tracking a cell ahead of the MCS over NE Al. Mainly in Jackson Cty. Little storm damage reports from it in-spite of lightning jump, and only a so-so reflectivity presentation. At 2130Z we do now have an OT top detection on this cell and it looks rather  impressive on vis imagery.

Did a 64 frame tracking tool analysis on the cell moving through Limestone AL and into Madison. This cluster produced 59 mph winds at KHUN and reports of lightning induced fires in Decatur area. Many reports of damage, trees down, and some building damage from strong winds. While the radar presentation was not impressive the track tool shows overshooting top detection at 2140Z with 5 sigma lightning jump at 2202Z. Flash density peaks at 2145 then diminished but then steadily rises to 60 at 2204.

Prob severe not much above 25- See post by KP for more on this. Good example here of flash extent and OT and lightning jump being a clue that this storm was severe. Radar look alone would be of little initial value, esp with no storm reports (late night hours for instance)

DSatterfield

lightning warning June 5

The lightning jump algorithm for the storm highlighted in purple went from -4 to 6…which is a significant increase over a 1 minute period. This prompted a warning.

jca

Example of cirrus obscuring CI

This loop provides an example of how the thin high cirrus clouds from the MCS to the northwest are obscuring the CI output for the cumulus clouds over Alabama. The edge of the cirrus shield is shown in the zig zagged line within the bubble.

-KP

*** The CI developers are able to track and give probs below thin and moderately opaque cirrus (likely with this case), unfortunately this was not observed/known till the final day so the simple change to the algorithm was not implemented in time for any evaluation. - BL

Pseudo Lightning Data

Today was the first day I had a chance to examine the pseudo lightning data.  We were watching storms just to the south of Denver.  The first lightning jump we saw occurred at 2017Z and jumped 4SD.  Still learning exactly how to use this – but was expecting an increase in storm intensity afterwards (based on the training) and this did occur.  ProbSevere gradually trended up as well – and using a combination of ProbSevere and the lightning jump data – issued a SVR at 2050Z.  Did not really examine the base radar data until after this – and based on dual-pol radar data – there was definitely hail falling by 2055 or 2100.

Thus – I considered the lightning data valuable.  It is another tool assess future storm intensity – i.e. which storm do I need to pay attention to.



Fowle

Blog 7 Day 4 on 5 June

Still watching storm over Jackson AL 4 sigma lightning jump. Reflectivity not all that impressive. but flash extent density and light jump are really popping.

prob Severe 84% but env shear weak.

MESH is at 1 inch. Hoping to get some spotter reports.

D Satterfield

Blog 6 Day 4 on 5 June

Suggestion on light jump usage.

Each to hi sown but I have found that putting light jump below Radar data works well. Spatial extent of Light jump covers larger area in smaller cells. Will not always work but on cells in which it does it seems handy. Example below. Basic suggestion here is to play around with hour you layer and display these tools.

The cell in Jackson cty AL has a 3 sigma jump and strong flash density.

DSatterfield

Blog 5 Day 4 on 5 June

Warning issued by HUN on storm in Jackson County AL. We also issued warning on it just before based on Lightning Jump/Prob Severe and flash extent density. These new products in my opinion really were valuable in knowing that this storm was likely to become severe. One of the best examples I have seen all week.

I suspect we were watching it sooner than even HUN was because of our experimental tools.