Week 3 of the EWP side of HWT was very busy with many distractions due to the Moore tornado and people in and out of the HWT. However, everyone survived and there was good feedback on the GOES-R products despite the GOES-13 outage.
WRF Simulated Satellite Forecasts
It's good to see how the model is handling the environment with this product...e.g., is the fog and low stratus burning off in the model vs reality?
It looked like the real deal.
A loop that compared the simulated vs the observed would be good.
I had training problems with the WES simulation and the simulated IR.
The procedures did not work...there was a work around apparently but I did not realize it.
PGLM
The tracing tool is similar to warn gen in that I could step through pretty quick and develop a track.
I see this as a future product for decision support services when the biggest concern is lightning...there are alot of events where we need to know if lightning is going to happen.
The tool is necessary but its just too time consuming in the warning process and im not sure how to make it better for warning...when lightning is my number one concern then I would use the tool more.
I used the tool in combination with Cloud-Top Cooling...and there was good correlation there.
I'm more of a fan of the cooler colors in the color table.
The flash extent density is excellent at showing the extent of the lightning in the anvil.
Convective Initiation
Although the product was not available for Wednesday and Thursday I saw enough where I would go online and look at the product.
This would be a good product for the mesoanalysis forecaster.
It was also good for cell maintenance and for cell feeders into an MCS that we had on Tuesday.
NearCast
The thte difference is a good product...shows exactly what you want it to.
Cloud-Top Cooling
The product worked very well initially...but then struggled somewhat with convection to the north as there was an anvil cirrus shield overhead.
On Thursday we uses this product quite a bit in a situation when there was more of a cap...so sometimes u would see a signal and then no convection and then again...and then eventually convection would develop. Eventually the convection fired on the strongest of three signals and this shows the utility of the product diagnose when a cap was eroding.
I would not use the product to just issue a warning...not enough confidence.
The CTC product is also useful close to the radar. The Lubbock convection was further from the radar...but the Amarillo storm was close to the radar...when we saw a strong signal there was a hour lead time on severe hail MESH. It's very useful close to the radar useful.
The initial convection was captured well and the product would be best used with other environmental data...know your environment.
Sounder RGB Airmass
I didn't have an opportunity to use the RGB airmass product...unfortunately the training material was limited on this product.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Storm Close to Amarillo Radar
The MRMS products were a big help in this case being able to look at
multiple radars since my storm was right near the radar as depicted in
the image below.
The Height of the 50dbz core went above 30,000ft agl, which was a trigger for issuing the warning. The 4 panel product below made the process easier in two ways. First the storm was near the radar and so having a 50 dbz echo core height product that took into account multiple radars was extremely helpful as the local office radar was unable to see the top of the storm. In addition, you could just look at the one screen and see the 50 and 60 dbz core height quickly without having to look through multiple slices of an adjacent offices radar to find the height of these cores.
The MESH and HSDA algorithms below both provided lead time for the quarter size hail that fell 11 miles north of Amarillo at 2236Z. The multi radar aspect of the MESH algorithm also made it easier to use than having to look at an adjacent radar to see the top of the storm. The HSDA is not multi radar and thus there were some limitations with this algorithm for the storm near Amarillo due to the close proximity of the storm to the radar.
Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) did a nice job of showing that convection was really trying to break out in Amarillo’s County Warning Area (CWA). There were numerous cloud top cooling signatures beginning at 20z. The first 50dbz echo reached the ground at 2146z. So it took awhile but eventually the storms overcame the cap and became severe (See image of CTC below).
Jeremy Wesely
The Height of the 50dbz core went above 30,000ft agl, which was a trigger for issuing the warning. The 4 panel product below made the process easier in two ways. First the storm was near the radar and so having a 50 dbz echo core height product that took into account multiple radars was extremely helpful as the local office radar was unable to see the top of the storm. In addition, you could just look at the one screen and see the 50 and 60 dbz core height quickly without having to look through multiple slices of an adjacent offices radar to find the height of these cores.
The MESH and HSDA algorithms below both provided lead time for the quarter size hail that fell 11 miles north of Amarillo at 2236Z. The multi radar aspect of the MESH algorithm also made it easier to use than having to look at an adjacent radar to see the top of the storm. The HSDA is not multi radar and thus there were some limitations with this algorithm for the storm near Amarillo due to the close proximity of the storm to the radar.
Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) did a nice job of showing that convection was really trying to break out in Amarillo’s County Warning Area (CWA). There were numerous cloud top cooling signatures beginning at 20z. The first 50dbz echo reached the ground at 2146z. So it took awhile but eventually the storms overcame the cap and became severe (See image of CTC below).
Jeremy Wesely
EWP Mesoscale Discussion May 23 2220 UTC
A complicated convective scenario continues to evolve over western
Texas in an area of weak mid level flow where mesoscale features have
been the primary driver for storm motion, storm type, and severe weather
type.
Severe supercell storms with all severe weather threats continue to move south southeastward across King and Dickens Counties into Kent and Stonewall Counties. These storms have a history of tornadoes, golfball sized hail, and 80 MPH winds. This severe threat is expect to persist as these storms move slowly along a region of high theta-E air with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
Recent radar trends show strong mid level rotation continuing in King County…and there is no current reason to believe that this storm will weaken at any point soon.
Because storm mode is expected to be supercellular for at least the next couple of hours and possibly longer…significant severe threats of all modes should be expected in the path of this storm. In addition to continuing to travel along this boundary of rich theta-E air…NEARCAST products indicate a region of substantial destabilization in the path of this storm.
To the north, in the AMA area, potential for convection continues to be monitored where considerable destabilization is forecast by GOES-Nearcast vertical theta-E difference product. A strong outflow boundary has pushed to the north and west of the LBB area storms… which continues to complicate the convective scenario. Originally… deeper convection was noted on the Cloud Top Cooling product…and though the echo has struggled to develop…lightning and a severe MESH indicator are now noted within an echo in Potter County. Convection may continue to increase along the outflow boundary in the next couple of hours…with hail and wind being the main threats.
To the south, in the Midland CWA, convection developed in areas of higher terrain and drifted slowly to the north-northeast. The strongest storm at this time is moving into Andrews County. These storms have been moving slowly to the north over an atmosphere characterized by dry air…and though the MESH product continues to indicate a threat of hail in the strongest storms…a threat of damaging wind will likely be the primary threat until the storms reach higher moisture.
- Sears/McCormick
Severe supercell storms with all severe weather threats continue to move south southeastward across King and Dickens Counties into Kent and Stonewall Counties. These storms have a history of tornadoes, golfball sized hail, and 80 MPH winds. This severe threat is expect to persist as these storms move slowly along a region of high theta-E air with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
Recent radar trends show strong mid level rotation continuing in King County…and there is no current reason to believe that this storm will weaken at any point soon.
Because storm mode is expected to be supercellular for at least the next couple of hours and possibly longer…significant severe threats of all modes should be expected in the path of this storm. In addition to continuing to travel along this boundary of rich theta-E air…NEARCAST products indicate a region of substantial destabilization in the path of this storm.
To the north, in the AMA area, potential for convection continues to be monitored where considerable destabilization is forecast by GOES-Nearcast vertical theta-E difference product. A strong outflow boundary has pushed to the north and west of the LBB area storms… which continues to complicate the convective scenario. Originally… deeper convection was noted on the Cloud Top Cooling product…and though the echo has struggled to develop…lightning and a severe MESH indicator are now noted within an echo in Potter County. Convection may continue to increase along the outflow boundary in the next couple of hours…with hail and wind being the main threats.
To the south, in the Midland CWA, convection developed in areas of higher terrain and drifted slowly to the north-northeast. The strongest storm at this time is moving into Andrews County. These storms have been moving slowly to the north over an atmosphere characterized by dry air…and though the MESH product continues to indicate a threat of hail in the strongest storms…a threat of damaging wind will likely be the primary threat until the storms reach higher moisture.
- Sears/McCormick
SPORT Flash and Trace Tool Kent Co Texas
On a 4-panel with MRMS Sfc Z, Sfc Vil, and others.
The trace tool was used on upper-left panel and indicated how the flashes increased quickly with the severe storm over Dickens, Kent, and Stonewall counties in the southeastern portion of LUB’s CWA.
Admittingly, the latter 5 min occurred while I was creating the image, etc, so didn’t redo my centroid there, just the zig-zag bad data.
Martello
The trace tool was used on upper-left panel and indicated how the flashes increased quickly with the severe storm over Dickens, Kent, and Stonewall counties in the southeastern portion of LUB’s CWA.
Admittingly, the latter 5 min occurred while I was creating the image, etc, so didn’t redo my centroid there, just the zig-zag bad data.
Martello
Still Watching and Waiting in Amarillo…
Ok, well we’ve gotten some recent cloud-top cooling amounts from clouds
in Randall County, TX. Cloud top cooling rates as low as -17C/15 min
were observed in Randall County as the outflow boundary moved across the
area, as indicated in the image below.
Also, notice the rather distinct theta-e ridge that is still present and extending into Randall County per the LAPS data (image below). We’ll see if these products allow for an appropriate focus and help predict likeliest locations for eventual development.
Also, notice the rather distinct theta-e ridge that is still present and extending into Randall County per the LAPS data (image below). We’ll see if these products allow for an appropriate focus and help predict likeliest locations for eventual development.
For LUB’s CWA, Watch Out Garza and Eastern Lynn Counties (SW of Current Supercells)!
Watching for potential development SSW of current supercells over Floyd,
Dickens, and King counties to the NE. CTC shows potential. Cirrus anvil
across the NE CWA will likely inhibit any CTC effectiveness.
Unfortunately, GOES_CIMSS Nearcast (either E or W) data did not extend further enough east across the LUB CWA to be effective with this event. (see 2030 UTC CIMSS W projection below).
If the Garza area was to develop quickly, the OUN_WRF project indicates 0-1KM SRH to 200-260 m2/s2 which mean environment would be favorable for rapid rotation and potential tornadoes like earlier storms to the north.
We continue to monitor development closely.
Martello/Zimmerman
Unfortunately, GOES_CIMSS Nearcast (either E or W) data did not extend further enough east across the LUB CWA to be effective with this event. (see 2030 UTC CIMSS W projection below).
If the Garza area was to develop quickly, the OUN_WRF project indicates 0-1KM SRH to 200-260 m2/s2 which mean environment would be favorable for rapid rotation and potential tornadoes like earlier storms to the north.
We continue to monitor development closely.
Martello/Zimmerman
Tornadic Storm Fires Off Old MCS Outflow Near Floydada, TX
Strong convergence initiated northeast of Lubbock, TX near Floydada in
Floyd County. CTC product caught -16 to -17K/15 min around 18:15 UTC on
this storm. Tornado warning was issued 19:21 UTC which resulted in 1
hr 6 min lead time if you had warned initially off the CTC signal.
Initialization in TX Panhandle
Texas panhandle is the area of main
focus for the first part of this afternoon. Analyzing CI via the CTC product, as seen below,
indicated development was expected to quickly form by 19z.
 |
| Image 1 – Cloud Top Cooling prior to CI around 18z. |
 |
| Image 2 – Cloud Top Cooling at the time of CI over the central parts of Texas panhandle around 1815z. |
 |
| Image 3 – Vis sat around 1815z, with CI. Vis at 1845z shows the explosion of the storm in the panhandle, with the Cloud Top Cooling product thus providing around a 30 mins lead time. |
 |
| Image 4 – With the radar products unavailable at this time, using MESH and probability of severe hail to show the development of the storm to severe levels. The CI on Cloud Top Cooling developed around an hour prior to the MRMS products reaching severe levels. |
Daily Debrief: 5/22/13
Due to the GOES-13 outage and not operating in a LMA, GOES-R demonstration products had limited use yesterday. However, the WRF simulated satellite forecasts were utilized.
The WRF simulated satellite forecasts seemed to do pretty well with the placement of the larger synoptic-scale...but not as well with some of the isolated convection...especially across PA.
There was a storm that initiated in the simulated satellite forecasts along Lake Ontario early in the afternoon along the lake breeze and no others until later on past our shift across western NY...this seemed to verify well.
Note from the EWP coordinator:
Action will be in the TX Panhandle and W OK on Thursday for our last operations shift of EWP2013. A mid morning MCS over OK may leave an outflow boundary in the eastern PH. As the upper level ridge axis moves to the east, a more favorable deep layer shear profile will emerge, with a chance for supercells. Large hail will be the main threat, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Good opportunities for CI produvt and PGLM product evaluation also exist.
Possible CWAs: Lubbock, Amarillo, Norman
One more note from me...the following products are unavailable today for the HWT forecasters to evaluate due to the GOES-13 outage: GOES-R Convective Initiation, NearCast, and Sounder RGB Airmass. Products available to the forecasters will be PGLM, WRF Simulated Satellite Forecasts, and Cloud-Top Cooling.
The WRF simulated satellite forecasts seemed to do pretty well with the placement of the larger synoptic-scale...but not as well with some of the isolated convection...especially across PA.
There was a storm that initiated in the simulated satellite forecasts along Lake Ontario early in the afternoon along the lake breeze and no others until later on past our shift across western NY...this seemed to verify well.
Note from the EWP coordinator:
Action will be in the TX Panhandle and W OK on Thursday for our last operations shift of EWP2013. A mid morning MCS over OK may leave an outflow boundary in the eastern PH. As the upper level ridge axis moves to the east, a more favorable deep layer shear profile will emerge, with a chance for supercells. Large hail will be the main threat, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Good opportunities for CI produvt and PGLM product evaluation also exist.
Possible CWAs: Lubbock, Amarillo, Norman
One more note from me...the following products are unavailable today for the HWT forecasters to evaluate due to the GOES-13 outage: GOES-R Convective Initiation, NearCast, and Sounder RGB Airmass. Products available to the forecasters will be PGLM, WRF Simulated Satellite Forecasts, and Cloud-Top Cooling.
Wednesday, May 22, 2013
WRF Simulated Satellite at 23 UTC
The WRF simulated satellite image forecast for 23 UTC (top) compared
well with the observed IR satellite (bottom) with respect to the
mid-level boundary location across Indiana. However, it did not handle
the convection well that formed over PA. Instead it showed more
convection east of the higher terrain across MD and northern VA.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)