Comparing LightningCast v1 and v2 in benign thunderstorms

Lightning is deadly even in "benign" thunderstorms. Some morning convection in Arkansas demonstrates the everyday value of having MRMS Reflectivity at -10C in LightningCast v2 (LCv2), compared to satellite-only LightningCast v1 (LCv1). 

The GOES ABI data is invaluable in the probabilistic LightningCast model, especially prior to convective initiation. But radar data sometimes (not always) provides a signal of convective weakening or decay prior to satellite data.

In this example, thunderstorms ongoing in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas weaken as the sun is coming up. In the animation below, LCv2 is on the left and LCv1 is on the right.

 
Towards the end of the period, when only one cell is present, we see that LCv2 reduces probabilities of lightning about 10-15 minutes prior to LCv1. This cell did not produce any additional lightning.

Figure 2: LCv2 (left) and LCv1 (right) contours, along with GOES-19 day-cloud-phase-distinction RGB and GLM flash-extent density (large blue pixels).

Other features that stand out are "stronger" false alarms in LCv1, compared to LCv2. The images below show these false alarm regions to the south (Figure 3) and south and east of the thunderstorms (Figure 4).

Figure 3: LCv2 (left) and LCv1 (right) contours, along with GOES-19 day-cloud-phase-distinction RGB and GLM flash-extent density (large blue pixels). Note the stronger false alarm in LCv1 south of the ongoing thunderstorms.

Figure 4: LCv2 (left) and LCv1 (right) contours, along with GOES-19 day-cloud-phase-distinction RGB and GLM flash-extent density (large blue pixels). Note the stronger false alarms in LCv1 south and east of the ongoing thunderstorms.

Overall, the radar predictor in LCv2 helps to reduce false alarms that occurred in LCv1.