ProbSevere IntenseStormNet is not being evaluated at HWT this week, but it is a unique application of satellite data for severe weather. On the eve of the 2nd week of the 2024 HWT, severe storms were ravaging the Plains.
IntenseStormNet is an AI model that uses patterns in ABI and GLM image data to predict a probability of "intense" convection. The strongest probabilities are often correlated with strong overshooting tops, bubbly texture in the visible band, storm-top divergence, and lightning cores.
In the movie above, you can see several MCSs traversing the state, producing severe hail, wind, and tornado reports. One the convection becomes cold-pool driven, the probabilities often diminish, sometimes significantly (see eastern Kansas at the end of the period).
Meanwhile in Oklahoma, a monster supercell progressed steadily through the western half of the state, dropping tornadoes, hail, and producing severe wind gusts. One interesting aspect about the product was the drop in probabilities from about 01:40 - 02:10 UTC. This drop corresponded to a short gap in severe weather reports produced by the supercell. Visually, the main overshooting top appeared to diminish.
IntenseStormNet is used in ProbSevere v3, feeding in satellite information at the mature stage to the severe-weather models.
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