Severe thunderstorms explosively developed along the dry line over central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. The HWT forecasters are centered on the Hastings, NE and Dodge City, KS WFOs. Forecasters from both WFOs have noticed ProbSevere All Hazards was exhibiting rapid jumps to to probabilities in excess of 90%, while MRMS MESH values remained in the 0.50" to 0.75" range (see Figures 1 and 2 below). The forecasters remarked they were pleased with the lead-time ProbSevere All Hazards was providing, despite the MESH still being below severe size (1.00"). The jumps in the probability of hail from ProbSevere All Hazards can be attributed to 1) intense GOES-16 vertical growth rates, 2) rapid increases in total lightning flash rates, and 3) the environmental parameters from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) used are extremely favorable for severe hail.
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| Figure 1. Storm over Hastings, NE CWA at 2012 UTC 01 May 2018. Notice ProbSevere All Hazards is 88%, while MRMS is only 0.37". This example illustrates the power of utilizing other observations of deep convection, specifically satellite derived growth rates and total lightning flash rates, as well as environmental conditions from NWP data. |
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Figure 2. Storm over Dodge City, KS CWA at 2014 UTC 01 May 2018. Notice ProbSevere All Hazards is 95%, while MRMS is only 0.73". This example also illustrates the power of utilizing other observations of deep convection, specifically satellite derived growth rates and total lightning flash rates, as well as environmental conditions from NWP data.
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-J. Sieglaff
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