MAF - Mesoscale Discussion

1930Z: Moderate instability was present across SE NM & W TX associated with mid to upper-50s dewpoints out ahead of a dryline. All-sky CAPE shows an area of 1000-1500 J/kg across SE NM & into the trans-Pecos region of TX with lower values generally around 500 J/kg or less across the TX Panhandle/Permian Basin & over the Davis Mountains. These CAPE values match up well spatially to SPC mesoanalysis but mesoanlaysis shows CAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg higher compared to the all-sky. CAPE values are forecast to increase to around 2000-2500 J/kg through the afternoon so will be interesting to see how the all-sky & NUCAPS products handle this evolution into the afternoon.
All-Sky CAPE:

Identifying the exact location of the dryline is tough due to the limited surface observations between MAF & EPZ but using the Simple Water Vapor RGB I was easily able to identify the dryline extent of the dryline with the dry air/green colors to the west & moist air/turquoise colors to the east. Also neat was the presence of dry air wrapping into a circulation over Mexico & kicking off convection to its east.
Simple WV RGB:

Shear is next to nothing today & will be the limiting factor in terms of severe weather out of any storms that develop today with effective bulk shear forecast to be lees than 30 kts. NUCAPS soundings are not in yet so can't compare mid-level lapse rates to mesoanlaysis but they look to be on the order of 7 C/km. DCAPE over 1000 j/kg suggests a downburst threat so I am primairily focused on the severe wind threat with any storms today & the potential for ow-end severe hail in the strongest updrafts.

A cell is already ongoing over the mountains of southern NM CI but otherwsie the CI product is quiet across the area. The glitchiness between frames is evident again but an increasing trend from 20% up to 50% is evident over the Davis Mountains of SW TX. For now I am focusing on the storms in NM & this area of TX for further convective development.
1930Z CI:

Peter Sunday