The NOAA/CIMSS Probability of Severe (ProbSevere) model is being evaluated by forecasters at the 2018 Spring Experiment at the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). For 2018 forecasters are evaluating an improved version of ProbSevere known as ProbSevere AllHazards. The existing ProbSevere model provided the probability a thunderstorm would produce any severe weather (severe hail, severe wind and/or tornado) in the 0-90 minute timeframe. Based on feedback from previous experiments, ProbSevere All Hazards provides probabilistic forecasts that thunderstorms will produce specific hazards--severe hail, severe wind, and tornado--in addition to the overall probability of severe (which is the maximum of the 3 hazard models). Starting in January 2018 ProbSevere, both the version feeding NWS WFOs and the experimental ProbSevere All Hazards version are using GOES-16 data over the entire CONUS. GOES-17 data will be incorporated into ProbSevere for the western US in late 2018.
Today forecasters are becoming familiar with the experimental products they will evaluate and developing AWIPS procedures they will use all week. The initial WFOs of interest today are Lubbock, Texas and Cheyenne, Wyoming. I will provide some examples of ProbSevere All Hazards via blog posts, in addition to characterizing some discussions with partipicants related to ProbSevere All Hazards.
-J. Sieglaff
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