Wednesday, June 28, 2017

EWP Week 2 End of Day 3...Thoughts and Feedback

Participants ended their day working in the Des Moines, IA and Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO CWAs.  A line of supercells developed this afternoon and tracked southeastward across Iowa and northwest Missouri.

  • ·       GOES-16 ABI Imagery and products

o   Fire products were useful, good for doing DSS, more effective for messaging and briefing
o   Help sheets are good, really key
o   RGBs will like be even more useful for general, daily forecasting
o   Saw -66 to -77 values in the 1 minute IR imagery, unreal
o   1 minute imagery was also useful to see areas where they was a lack of convergence, knew the development wasn’t going to continue along the boundary, good to see relative to the major areas of population
  • ·       GLM

o   Using every day, love it.  Spikes in lightning were evident, have confidence with the lightning jump that you could warn on the storm right away…every tornadic storm had a lightning jump and a cooling top
o   Like the gridded GLM best overlaid with radar or MESH, not with satellite
o   Still would like a centroid, a way to calculate the lightning jump or a ProbSevere for lightning
o   Like the GLM combined product, tried the 1 minute vs the 5 minutes…not sure anything was gained by using the 1 minute
o   Would not release to local offices until the mapping is fixed
o   For training, going to need case studies, lots of concrete examples instead of job sheets.  Provide procedures.  Could even do live webinars.  Felt the training module for this project was too slow, equation/laws information were too in-depth  
  • ·       NUCAPS

o   Like the gridded versions a lot, there is some real potential value there
o   Gridded data is really blocky
o   Latency is still an issue
o   Could give confidence to your forecast, or give you pause…maybe need to re-asses your forecast
o   If you aren’t near an upper air site, the data has use even if it’s not perfect
o   Make sure it makes sense with its location in the AWIPS menu, and provide a way to know when a satellite pass occurs…otherwise it’s easy to forget to look at the data
  • ·       ProbSevere

o   Why isn’t ProbTor higher than 90% when there is a confirmed tornado?
o   Trends were good, helpful to get a warning out right away…especially on shift changes

o   Weird times when ProbTor would go up, but the AzShear would go down

-Holly Obermeier

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