NUCAPS vs. Observed and Forecast Soundings

On the large scale Thursday afternoon, northern Oklahoma was on the backside of a strong upper low pressure system which was moving through the upper Mississippi Valley.  On the backside, low, fair wx CU was readily apparent across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  Further aloft, water vapor imagery showed an influx of dry air sinking south across the Central Plains through the early afternoon hours.  This dry air would eventually move into northern Oklahoma and was sampled by a 17z sounding from Lamont, OK.  The NUCAPS pass at 19z also sampled this dry air very well, as highlighted below.  Additionally, the NUCAPS sounding also accurately sensed an increase in moisture near the 850 hPa level which per the visiable satellite image above, was very likely the flat fair wx CU field seen on visible satellite imagery above.

Recommendation:

Through the course of the first week of the HWT, we've learned that there are plans for automated correction to the NUCAPS soundings based on surface observations and rapid-refresh analysis.  If I were to make a recommendation in addition to the boundary layer correction, I think the best area to target would be the 850-500 hPa layer as this is the area where capping inversions are commonplace.  Knowledge on the strength of a capping inversion is crucial in the severe weather forecasting environment and NUCAPS soundings can provide added value in the near-term convective forecasting environement.  

19z NUCAPS Sounding

20z Rapid-Refresh Sounding

17z Lamont, OK Sounding