A strong short-wave trough moved through the Central Great Plains, generating severe thunderstorms in a strongly unstable and sheared environment. During the event, we operated in two CWAs: Hastings and North Platte. Forecasters Pelczynski and Anderson operated in Hastings; forecasters Fowle and Satterfield operated in North Platte.
When we started operations, convection had already begun in NC Nebraska, and it began to grow upscale as the sytem moved toward Omaha. Further west, convective initiation held off for some time, before multiple storms fired along the warm front that stretched across central Nebraska. A supercell near Ord, Nebraska became tornadic, and produced multiple tornadoes along its path just south of Omaha.
However, as the cold pool north of the warm front strengthened, it became increasingly clear that a major tornado event would not occur. At the time of this writing, however, it appears that a significant wind event may still occur in eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa / northern Missouri (per the SPC high risk).
-G. Garfield
Week 4 Coordinator
Feedback (BL)
Simulated Satellite Imagery
- A+ on that. Model missed convection because it had a cirrus shield that wasn't actually there. So the model likely developed convection late because of this.
- Gives me confidence in the model. from a big picture standpoint, I think there is some utility there for forecasters
- Even if it didn't do the best, its still important information
- Suggestion – fade in out reflectivity
NearCast
- I liked the theta-e diff and pw plots. Good for getting idea where you may start seeing convection get going, particularly where there were strong gradients. Using current vis with nearcast forecast, I looked for where would fields interact with boundaries in the near future.
- Gradients are helpful, qualitative area where you want to investigate further.
- Even with data dropouts, you can infer.
- Its good in the pre-convective environment, going into event. Once warnings get going, kinda stop viewing it
GOES-R CI
- For us, there was a lot of cloud obscuration, from high cirrus, for storms that were obviously going
- There were areas where you could see ci increasing for successive volume scans where showers developed
- It did pretty good in showing areas along line that would develop
- But doesn't give much info on whether developing convection will become severe
- We use ctc in our office, I find that to be more useful. You don’t get a lot of noise, it just gives you cells that are growing the quickest. It provides what storms are growing, and gives quantitative value of that developmental rate. That to me is much more useful than ci product. It doesn't hit every storm, but I like that quantitative info it gives. We pay attention to the -10, -20 -30 thresholds.
- Broadcaster world very much use this – something that tells you where to pay attention is valuable. Every broadcaster would like to have the ci.
ProbSevere
- I thought it was useful – times when you had big jumps up and down, which is good to know. Good safety net, gives you clues on which storms you need to pay attention to. A little more calibration on some of the thresholds might be needed. Seems like its more of a hail predictor.
- For wind – temp-dew point depressions, sub cloud evaporation. Which will be wind producers.
- For situational awareness, if I'm on air, prob severe would be very helpful for me (broadcaster), esp if I am only one in at the time. If I can see quick prob severe on another cell, it would lead me to look at it
- Color curve, I struggled with near 10% and 40%, they looked similar.
- Once it becomes severe, it doesn't do you much good anymore, there are a lot of other products that could tell me its decreasing, etc. Once its mature or producing severe, maybe make it a different color or something
- For a colorblind person, it could be difficult. perhaps get thicker with lines as you go up (moreso than is already done).
OTD
- I think its most useful to see when tops are dying.
- I think with 5 or 1 minute data, this would be more useful, especially at night
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