Well…we decided to issue our first experimental warning based on the UW-CTC. Let’s see what kind of lead time we get!
CTC rates were around -20C/15 min and we are just beginning to see some reflectivity.
We will update to let you know if we get any verification or if this turns out to be a false alarm!
Update: A great question was just posed: do you plot the warning downstream of the developing storm based on the Warn-on-Forecast? Or do you just use the CTC as a ‘red flag’ and follow the development as it progresses…issuing the warning at a later time?
CTC (upper right image on left panel) with first severe thunderstorm warning (right panels)
Update: 2207z….
We issued another warning based on CTC! We seemed to kill any
potential with the first CTC-based warning… perhaps this one will work
out!
Trends on MESH and reflectivity have improved on this storm and now appears severe on radar.
Update: 5:43pm CDT... VERIFIED! 1.50″ 4:30pm local time (MDT)!! The initial warning was issued at 4:07pm MDT.
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