EWP: UW-CTC 45 minute lead-time on severe hail

Another day at HWT we are focusing on southern Texas.  An upper level low over northern Mexico is finally beginning to move eastward, this combined with humid low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico is setting the stage for severe thunderstorms over southern Texas today.  There were numerous severe thunderstorms ongoing as of late morning.  One of the most recent developing storms is showcased below.  At 1632 UTC 10 May 2012, the UW-CTC product showed cloud-top cooling rates of ~ -6K / 15 min.  The following satellite scan at 1645 UTC the UW-CTC increased substantially to over -20 K / 15 min.  Later images of radar-based maximum expected hail size show estimated severe hail occurring at 1715 UTC and significant hail in excess of 3.00" at 1725 UTC. 

Figure 1.  Valid 1632 UTC 10 May 2012.  The UW-CTC product indicates initial substantial vertical growth of a developing thunderstorm (red circle).

Figure 2.  Valid 1645 UTC 10 May 2012.  The UW-CTC rate on the developing storm explodes into the strong category with cooling rates near -23 K / 15 min (red circle).

Figure 3.  Valid 1715 UTC 10 May 2012.  The bottom right panel shows radar-based maximum expected hail size exceeding severe thresholds (1.00", red circle), 45 minutes after the initial UW-CTC signal.

Figure 4.  Valid 1725 UTC 10 May 2012.  The bottom right panel shows radar-based maximum expected hail size of over 3.00 (red circle)", 55 minutes after the initial UW-CTC signal and 40 minute after the maximum UW-CTC signal.