A 5 hour NRCAST vertical theta-e difference is shown to the left. The gradients between unstable values (greens, yellows, and reds) and stable values (blues) are marked by the white lines. The stronger gradient is along the solid line as a weak cold front pushed southward through the area. A weaker gradient extends to the south.
Observed radar is shown to the left along with the 5-hour theta-e gradient forecast. Note that the stronger storms formed generally along the gradient, rather then in the middle of the unstable area. Additionally, showers were generally confined to the unstable areas. If a general convective initiation time is known, this gradient forecast could be useful in locating the areas where storms will fire. With virtually no precip in the stable areas, this product would also be useful in short term precip probability forecasts.
Denny VanCleve NWS/MKX
Robert Aune NOAA/ASPB, Jordan Gerth UW/CIMSS
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