Killing Time..

Sitting amongst the many weather aficionados, scientists, and forecasters in the HWT, the afternoons convective activity is being actively discussed, weighed, and contemplated. Where will be the area of interest be for the afternoon that all of the groups will place their focus?

While all of this goes on, I have been spending my time listening and watching the satellite and radar displays, checking to see how SATCAST is doing. Early this morning, a short finger of clouds sitting diagonally over eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin triggered some convection along the line. An example of new convection just north of the main line is shown below producing radar echoes in about an hour. This was repeated along the line in the 2-3 hour period I was watching.

AWIPS Display at 1332 and 1432 UTC.
In other parts of the country, mostly around the Gulf of Mexico, the last few days have provided lots of examples of individual instances along the coast and across Florida where SATCAST was able to forecast initiation with an average of 30 - 45 minutes of lead-time. Radar images taken from the NWS radar pages...


As the afternoon progressed, the number of storms that were caught and developed into the late afternoon all along the Gulf Coast did a good show showing the utility of the SATCAST algorithm.

SATCAST images at 1732 and 1745 UTC.
Mobile, AL radar at 1744 and 1826 UTC.
Tallahassee, FL radar at 1743 and 1829 UTC.
For today, the SATCAST image at 1715 UTC with corresponding imagery from the NWS’s regional weather radar loops, the CI indicators are starting to verify to the south along the coast, while faint radar echoes are becoming visible to the North and East into Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina.

Lower images, 1758 and 1918 UTC SE Region radar image