Daily debrief... 9 June

Today we met up with the EWP forecasters following the joint EFP/EWP daily map discussion and talked a little about what happened yesterday. Since there was some interesting weather from yesterday we had a good chance to capture some feedback from the forecasters regarding the experimental products...

Convective Initiation

- UWCI triggered CI occurring right as the appearance of a 50 dBZ echo on radar... it was so unstable that it didn't really have much of a chance.

- "I liked the cooling cloud tops product... gave you some awareness of what storms you should pay attention to during warning ops and which ones were strongest."

- "I found it useful this week and look forward to that era when we can get those increased temporal refresh rates. This would be very useful."

- In a more dynamic situation this could be very useful.

We asked the forecasters if they had a preference to see more or less signal (more vs less FAR)...

- "I like looking at them both side by side... you can come up with a poor man's ensemble for CI because we know the limitations of both."

- "There may actually be a benefit of some false hits because it may be telling you that the cap is strong... it can give you a sense of what's going to happen in the short-term."

Nearcast

- The precipitable water product did give a sense of where the convection would start over SW WI.

- There was a sharp theta-e gradient and that seemed to be where storms focused.

Overshooting-tops / Thermal Couplet

- Thermal couplet showed up over SW WI, but warning was already issued and radar was showing clear signals of severe weather.

- Interesting to see all the thermal couplets over northern Maine... might be a good case to examine.

- There were many overshooting tops over the WI area, however forecasters were too engulfed in the rapidly updating radar data.


Today EWP warning operations are going to stick around New England with the ongoing severe convection. We are hoping that some storms can back-build towards the DCLMA so that we can get some PGLM data, although this is conditional. We may also target over Oklahoma if things get going there, but that too is very conditional.