Ideas for improving the CTC / OT algorithm for aviation forecasters

During the later half of this week in the aviation group at HWT, a couple of ideas were discussed for increasing the applicability of the OT, and maybe even more so CTC algorithms in short-term and nowcast aviation forecasting. I relayed the initial idea of incorporating a color scale and approximate value for cloud top height to the OT algorithm, which Steve Silberberg from AWC was very interested in, to Kris Bedka. Kris briefed me on similar products that exist or are in development that might be able to be implemented in AWIPS for use at the AWC. This would be used jointly with the UWCI algorithm to help identify "threat" convection.

Perhaps an even more applicable tool would be to include an approximate cloud top height or change in cloud top height between satellite scans with the CTC algorithm to quantify the actual vertical growth of individual convective updrafts. This could be extremely valuable to aviation forecasters in a short term / nowcast timescale for echo top forecast updates. Seeing a specific value for height change might be an even quicker assessment of cloud growth when combined with the CTC color scheme. Also, en route air traffic would be able to use such a tool to avoid rapidly growing updrafts prior to tops reaching 34000+ ft. This preventative measure would increase air safety by decreasing the probability of moderate to severe turbulence encountered by aircraft flying over cells with tops just below 340 due to the little knowledge pilots currently have of cumulus development outside of VFR. Both aviation forecasters this week expressed great enthusiasm for the advancements that such a product would bring to the aviation forecasting community including Brad Sherman from the FAA. To help familiarize the group with FAA operations, Brad explained how commercial aircraft usually fly over tops under 340 and "wing-wag" around those with 340+ tops. Learning about how flight delays and cancellations during the warm season rapidly stem from not only ongoing and developing convection, but also "snapshot" 21 and 23z 250+ convective top coverage forecasts made 4 hours in advance, was engaging to say the least.

-Dan Hartung