Synthetic ABI brightness temperatures

Synthetic ABI brightness temperatures are being generated
at CIMSS and CIRA using output from the 00 UTC NSSL-WRF
4-km model simulations. Discussions have been held during
the past several days describing how infrared imagery can
be used to quickly evaluate the structural evolution of
the simulated thunderstorms and other cloud features as
well as to examine the overall accuracy of model
forecasts. Simulated IR imagery provides a powerful means
to quickly evaluate model output since various
characteristics such as cloud top height, water vapor
distribution, and thunderstorm coverage and intensity can
be inferred from a single image rather than having to look
at many different fields. As an example, the synthetic
imagery was used today to determine how quickly a
low-level stratus cloud deck present over the high plains
of NE Colorado and SE Wyoming would dissipate this
morning. Real GOES imagery indicated that the cloud cover
was not dissipating very quickly, which raised some
concerns that this would reduce surface warming and impede
the development of thunderstorms later in the day. A
quick examination of the synthetic 11.2 micron imagery,
however, quickly showed that this cloud cover would
dissipate by late in the morning. This provided greater
confidence that a risk for severe thunderstorms was
warranted over that region. The clouds did indeed
dissipate during the morning and several severe
thunderstorms, including one near the Denver airport,
developed during the afternoon.

-Jason Otkin