ProbHail Detection shows increased accuracy over MRMS MESH

LSRs showed 1.5" hail fell in Dumas, TX.  Just beforehand ProbHail increased to 83%  just beforehand. MRMS showed some spotty 1+" calculations but only to the SW of Dumas. Flash Rate also showed an increase just before the Severe Hail fell in Dumas.



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GOES All Sky LAP TPW and CIRA Merged TPW Cloud Mask Differences

At 22 UTC on 6 May 2019, the All Sky LAP and CIRA Merged TPW Data type products show differences in the cloud mask.  A shallow Cu field over NC / SC is indicated in GOES visible imagery,.  The data type masks of the two products (blue = clear; yellow / gray = clouds) show some clouds in the All Sky LAP mask, while the CIRA Merged TPW mask does not have these Cu detected.  This is likely due to the lower resolution (~ 15 km) of the GOES-16 TPW data used in Merged TPW versus the All Sky LAP resolution.







GOES-R TPW has a nominal resolution of 10 km.

JohnF

Early Detection of Convection w/GLM

Impressed by the early convective detection by GLM in this case. The image below was in real time and you can see the GLM Minimum Flash Area and Flash Extent Density is already lighting up in Oldham County in the AMA CWA. However, the 1-minute MESO GOES-16 data barely had cooling cloud tops being detected and there was no detection of precip at that location on MRMS yet (actual first time of detection was 2-minutes sooner than picture below where MRMS has no detection of radar echoes).



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Minimum Flash Area Showing Updrafts Exploding in AMA

Good for situational awareness...Got caught looking at the Lake Meredith storm and new updrafts are quickly going up. to the south near AMA.

Differences in TPW and LAP in pre-storm environment over AMA

Noticed a major difference in the pre-storm environment at 17Z, just before convective initiation, between the TPW and LAPS products Total Precipitable Water Products. AllSkyLAP Total Precipitable H20 was observing ~1.25" at 17Z whereas the Avd. Blended TPW observed ~0.7" at 17Z. A special 17Z sounding observed 0.9". While AllSkyLAP 'looked' more realistic from a mesoanalysis standpoint, the sounding was closer to the Adv. Blended TPW product. Would like to see more sounding verification between the 2 products.







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GOES16 vs GOES17 Optical Energy Comparison

GOES 17 has been showing greater Optical Energy than GOES 16 with storms currently across the TX/OK Panhandles.

AllSky vs GOES Products

One of the limitations of GOES TPW is that it will not display data when there is a significant amount of clouds in the area. AllSky Layer Precip is a great alternative to GOES TPW for areas that are experiencing clouds. The same goes for AllSky CAPE vs GOES CAPE. With a MOD Risk of svr wx today across the TX Panhandle, having the AllSky Data available greatly benefits forecasters today.

All-SKY CAPE Useful in Forecasting Potential Convective Development

Looping All-SKY CAPE imagery showed a CAPE axis extending northwest across NE CO and SE WY.  Isolated to scattered convective initiation occurred along this axis.

GOES GLM products offset

Always important to keep in mind that the locations on all GOES Products are offset based on the tilt of both GOES satellites relative to the CONUS. Good Example of the offset of GLM with ENTLN lightning data displacement shown here.



Would something like this be problematic when calculated into the ProbSevere model?

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HWT Satellite & Radar Spring Experiment -- week 3

Forecasters are becoming acquainted with the different products they will be evaluating this week. One team of forecasters have localized in Dodge City, KS awaiting initiation. Meanwhile, a small line of thunderstorms intensified in north-central KS, captured by the ProbSevere model (Figure 1). An official NWS warning was issued at 20:10 UTC, right after a ramp up in ProbHail and ProbWind. One-inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts have been reported in this line. Several forecasters have expressed that they like having the historical trends in the probabilities (Figure 2) and constituent predictors. Right now the time series capability is available only via the web, but we are working on incorporating this capability into the AWIPS-2 plug-in.

Fig. 1: ProbSevere contours, NWS warnings, and MRMS MergedReflectivity in SSEC RealEarth.

Fig. 2: ProbSevere products time series, which can be accessed via the web by clicking on an object ID (cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/probsev.html). The green, blue, and red time series record the ProbHail, ProbWind, and ProbTor values, respectively. The vertical red line marks the issuance time of a NWS warning.