Last Impressions

 SZA

Love it! Can’t wait for it to be implemented. The amount of detail that can be ascertained both earlier in the morning and later in the evening is unbelievable. Main applications in my area would be for fog detection and snow squalls. While maybe a bit niche, the snow squall phenomenon is always a challenge. It’s a shallow feature that really ramps up in the afternoon and evening hours. If it’s too far out our radar really can’t pick up on it and the day cloud phase is often one of the best tools for tracking.

OCTANE

Continues to impress! The cloud top cooling tool remains a slam dunk for identifying cells that are quickly growing upscale. The example below shows further cooling after a decent anvil had already developed. 

Image below is from the same time above 2112Z

8 minutes later the storm looks to be producing hail

Lightning Cast

Another solid product. I didn’t notice too much difference between the two versions but the parallax fix is very welcome. I personally won’t use the dashboards as I like to see the data overlaid with satellite and radar. Just seeing a chart with numbers moving doesn’t work for me. However, if I would recommend adding a sound feature to the dashboard. The only other suggestion I have is using less contours. I prefer the 10, 25, 50, 75 that are already in AWIPS.

Lightning Stoplight

First time ever using this tool but it will definitely become a mainstay in my arsenal for helping with DSS. I really don’t have a lot of feedback to give. The tool is simple and easy to use. I like overlaying radar on top of it in my procedures and I’m neutral to the idea of changing green to blue.

Geoxo products

These were neat to look at over Africa and Europe, but I found myself really struggling to use them stateside. I may need more training to fully understand the benefits of the synthetic satellite data, but I can’t see myself using it. I already have a ton of different CAMs I can look at, so I’m not sure I understand the benefit of looking at the synthetic satellite. I do have high hopes for the WVT tool though. The color table is very difficult for me to tease out what I need from it though. I tried manipulating the ranges a few times and also changed dry to brown and moist to green, but it still seems pretty difficult to pick out features for myself. What I really want is something to help me track boundaries. Jason shared a really neat animation over Africa that highlighted boundaries very neatly, would love to see if that could be implemented somehow. My end goal is I want to see moisture boundaries from lake breezes, decayed thunderstorms, or different moisture fields such as evapotranspiration

IsthataTOR

When A “Bolt From the Blue” Shatters Your Confidence

 Today presented one of those moments where you feel pretty confident in your messaging, but then mother nature throws you for a loop. For the Red, White, and Lavender festival, a line of general thunderstorms was moving over the festival right around start time of our forecast period so this gave me an opportunity to test the Stoplight tool and LightningCast in a messaging scenario for lightning cessation.

What seemed like a pretty straightforward case of DSS messaging to festival goers regarding the line moving east and lightning threat ending turned into a stressful situation for me. At roughly 1935Z, LightningCast showed probabilities were trending downward while the Stoplight tool was also trending toward yellow and green to suggest we would be approaching that “all clear” state. See the LightningCast dashboard graphic below with the main decision timeframe boxed in yellow. So, I confidently messaged my Festival Coordinator an estimated all clear time to be the top of the hour.

Figure 1 . LightningCast Dashboard over Manhattan Regional Airport, near the Red White and Lavender Festival depicting lightning probabilities trending downwards during my DSS decision timeframe.

But then at ~1955Z, the Stoplight tool turned red again WEST of my site (while the Festival itself was under green) as the FED picked up on what I'm guessing were anvil crawlers. I was surprised because the anvil looked pretty thin to me over that area so I honestly didn't know what to think. Then, ENTLN lightning plot showed a number of cloud flashes within 10mi east of the site and eventually plotted a negative CG barely 6miles to the east of the festival at 2015Z (see Figure 2). Talk about shattering a DSS forecaster’s confidence!  It seemed to be one of those “bolt out of the blue” strokes, too close for comfort! To LightningCast’s credit, probabilities never went below 20%, with V1 even hovering around 40% the entire decision timeframe.  Mother Nature sure taught me yet another lesson in humility that one cannot be too confident no matter what!

Figure 2. The Stoplight Tool plotted with FED, ENTLN and DSS range rings at 2015Z. The black arrow denotes the location of the negative CG about 6mi east of the site.

I'd like to think that in a real scenario, I would have been a little more conservative in estimating a time of all clear. But with this being an experiment, I felt a little more bold in just "going for it".

Figure 3. A longer loop of the Stoplight Tool, ENTLN and FED products, including the decision timeframe and point of confidence ruined.

And just for fun, because I’m hooked, below is a loop of the CONUS OCTANE CTC, Speed and Direction products for a rapidly intensifying storm over Cloud and Clay Counties.  Although not as seamless as the mesoscale versions of these tools, there is still a lot of utility in diagnosing storm development and strength with CONUS vs traditional satellite imagery. I’m even becoming more and more a fan of the “blues” colorscale for the CTC product (left hand panel) when plotted on the Ch 13 product. The stark contrast between the dark blues/purples against the rainbow of the IR anvil really catch the eye.

Figure 4 . ECONUS Octane CTC product (left), Octane Speed (middle), and Octane Direction (right).

Astrophage

LTG DSS with LTG Cast and Stoplight

 Upon starting the shift we had a supercell that was about 1 hr out from our first event. In operations our DSS forecaster would have immediately informed our partner that the cell (which had 1” hail report) is barreling in from the southwest.

Both versions of the LTG cast were providing a 70% chance of LTG within the next hour as well, with convection out ahead of the main supercell the heads up notification would also have included this information.

45minutes later we had our first lightning strike onsite ahead of the main supercell.

—---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Activity began to wind down by 2030Z

An all clear call would have been made at 2100Z with the stoplight product largely vacant of any lightning detection. MRMS-10C was also outside of the 8mile range ring with little build up expected upstream. Lightning cast had also dropped to around 10%.

IsthataTOR

GEOXO storm development and LightningCast DSS

 The GEOXO Sim 5.15um band and WVT ratio showed supercell or at least thunderstorm development near Gettysburg by 21Z. However the initialization of the upper level cirrus was underdeveloped and the main severe warned thunderstorm was farther north than observed. The lower level cumulus also appeared to be underdeveloped. There is a clear region in the sims where higher moisture is present and dryer air exists on either side, with the thunderstorms developing on the western boundary line.

Figure 1: GEOXO Sim 5.15um band and WVT ratio on top with observed GOES-19 IR an visible imagery on bottom. First frame shows Observations at around 20Z compared to the model and the second frame is in the future on the top an hour later.

While not severe or as intense as the Sim suggested, storms did develop and provided an interesting borderline case where LightningCastv1 showed barely 10% and v2 showed barely 30% chance of lightning in the next hour within 5 miles of the Gettysburg DSS location. A lightning strike occurred roughly miles from Gettysburg that was detected by the ENTLM and the Stoplight tool maybe 2 miles to the east. In this case, the addition of MRMS was clearly helpful in detecting the initial nearby convection.

Figure 2. LightningCast comparison between version 1 and 2 and parallax vs no parallax adjustment.

Cloudius

Overview: Week 3, Day 3

Day 3 started with our debrief from Tuesday, along with a focus group activity for GeoXO lightning mapper capabilities. I showed forecasters SZA imagery near sunrise during a period of glare from the GOES-East perspective near sunset. Overall forecasters felt the cloud tops were more 'washed out' by the brighter visible channels, but mentioned the important feature from the Day Cloud Phase Distinction is often the cloud phase before the overspreading anvil cloud begins. 

Traditional Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB

SZA Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB

Wednesday targeted the Northern Plains again, with the cold front being are only source of lift and deep layer shear that we can pull from this week. We decided to localize the forecasters to NWS Grand Forks, ND (FGF) and Aberdeen, SD (ABR), and each had two DSS events so they could leverage the LightningCast SuperDashboards.

1PM

Storms were slow to develop early in the forecaster period with a bit of cloud cover making the Synthetic GXI imagery less usable, so the product developers took both offices on a 'tour of Europe' showing off the Water Vapor Transmittance product from the Meteosat-12 FCI. This led us back to the states where we talked more about colormaps for WVT and what forecasters preferred. I made a display as part of that discussion. Upper left is WVT with 'flipped' colormap, upper right is WVT with the origional colormap, lower left is WVT with a red-green colormap made by a forecaster in the previous week, and the lower right is PWATs from the most recent HRRR run (18Z).

 2 PM

Forecasters in both offices focused mostly on DSS tasks early in the forecast period, along with comparing OCTANE's CONUS and MESO products. Additional discussion centered around the Lightning Stoplight tool and debating the 'optimal' color table to convey the intended actions from those viewing the product.

As thunderstorms approached the mock-IDSS events forecasters interrogated LightningCast data and discussed its applications, along with the desire to have variable ranges for the dashboard web display. We did run into an interesting case where a thunderstorm initiated over a narrow band of cirrus clouds, which may have impacted signals from OCTANE and LightningCast.

To end the day, I spammed AWIPS looking for sunrise imagery to show off SZA (thanks Justin for turning on the feed so early!)

Fog and low clouds from the marine layer along the California coast from the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB (SZA left/traditional right)

Valley fog over the Appalachian Mountains in the morning from the Day Snow Fog RGB (SZA left/traditional right).

Kevin

CYS Lightning DSS

 For context, there ended up being no lightning within 15 miles of the DSS event. With storms developing on the Laramie Range and the event in Fort Laramie, this case was excellent given developing convection upstream. The LightningCastV1 and V2 looked different despite having no radar data from KCYS. Near the beginning, LightningCastV1 appears more bullish on the 10% and 30% contour nearly over the event range ring while the V2 is closer to the western edge of the 15 mile range ring.

Figure 1: LightningCast-ECONUS-compare panel.

LCv1 vs LCv2 probabilities for GOES-East and GOES-West were the most interesting results of this case. Objectively, the GOES-East V2 chances for lightning ended up performing the best with no strikes. The environment supported dominant left splits which ended up happening with 2 storms. The southwestern storm ultimately decayed but the lingering weak right mover was slightly problematic for chances of lightning near the end of the event with cloud flashes near Bordeaux, WY. The northwestern storm initiated near Laramie peak and ultimately threw a dominant left split away from the DSS event. The most interesting part was the chance of lightning from the 4 options ranged from nearly 20% to nearly 75% around 2120 UTC. What was notable at that time on the radar was the dying right split SW of Bordeaux, WY, and the dominant left split was moving away from the DSS radar just west of Sibley peak, WY which would make me think of lightning potential being very low. This is not to diminish the potential of the product but to raise awareness that different data sources resulted in a 65% difference in chances for lightning.

Figure 2: LCv1 vs LCv2 probabilities for GOES-East and West.

Dry Thunderstorms

The Think Pony Club: Providing Decision Support Using New-Age Satellite Products

 Picture this: you’re out on the open prairie of Wyoming. The wind is whistling through the grass. The late-afternoon sun shines against the towering clouds that have made the Great Plains famous. Spread out in front of you along the hallowed and historic grounds of Fort Laramie, dozens of people wait in folding lawn chairs. There are picnics and music and the shouts of children playing in the warm June evening. Finally, as the sun starts to set, a shape appears along the horizon. Soon, everyone is pointing and squinting as the figure - a man on horseback - comes galloping onto the fort’s parade ground. Slung over his shoulder is a large bag full to the brim with letters.

It is 2026, and the Pony Express rides once again.

For this romantic and nostalgic scene to take place, the patrons of the event need to be kept safe from any sort of adverse weather. Fort Laramie is tremendously exposed to frequent summertime convection, and the National Park Service requested DSS for the great ride this evening. With good reason: by the time shift change occurred at noon MDT, storms were already beginning to develop along the Laramie Range 50 miles to the southwest.

This turned out to be a fascinating case throughout the afternoon - a real “will it or won’t it” as thunderstorms developed and pulsed multiple times over that 50 mile range. The forecasters at Simulated WFO Cheyenne noted increasing lightning potential as early as 1:30 MDT with a much stronger updraft moving off of the terrain. It was initially thought that by 2:30-3:30 MDT, the Fort Laramie area would likely see lightning. However, the storm weakened - a process captured much better by OCTANE Cloud Tops on the Meso band than the CONUS sector.

Figure 1a: Cloud tops from OCTANE over the CONUS sector, showing deepening purples in far southwest Platte County associated with the storm moving toward Fort Laramie.

Figure 1b: Cloud tops from OCTANE over the Mesoscale sector, showing a decrease in the area of purples as the primary thunderstorm collapsed.

Eventually, convection did begin to approach the DSS location. Using a 15-mile range ring, it was unclear whether or not we would breach the event trigger. Two storms developed west of Fort Laramie by about 30 miles and were moving east. The southern storm would undoubtedly track through that 15-mile range ring, but it decayed before arriving. The storm’s final cloud flash occurred about 17 miles away from Fort Laramie proper.

The bigger question, of course, was the updraft on the northwestern flank. If it followed an easterly track, then lightning would assuredly get into the 15-mile range ring. However, a complicated storm splitting process occurred, and regional radar observations (primarily Rapid City radar, scanning at 20,000 feet - the Cheyenne radar is out of commission) suggested that the left split took most of the updraft mass due northward with it. This led to a fascinating case study for LightningCast, where the two MRMS-based V2 products predicted much lower lightning probabilities than the V1 purely satellite-based products, likely due to obfuscation of updraft movement under all of the anvils.

Figure 2: GOES-East (left) and GOES-West (right) LightningCast probabilities at Fort Laramie using the legacy (red) method and the MRMS-included (green) method.

Something to really keep an eye out for when using LightningCast in future IDSS deployments: depending on which product you hitched your wagon to, you could have predicted lightning probabilities of anywhere between 20 and 75% simultaneously. Be careful to use the best data available and blend when possible!

The storms did eventually decay and move off to the north, leaving our hypothetical crowd with a lovely afternoon to enjoy some classic prairie fare, and to prepare for the noble steeds of the Pony Express to ride again.

Sabrina Carpenter

Overview: Week 3, Day 2

10 AM

Tuesday began with our morning discussion from Monday's operation/orientation day. Forecasters had plenty of storms to observe yesterday, which allowed everyone to get acquainted with OCTANE. Forecasters talked about the applications of OCTANE data, and one said it can be a 'super tool' for mesoanalysis but also needs 'super users'. For the Synthetic GXI WVT product, forecasters also showed early support for the 'flipped' color table but wanted to see it in action more this week before deciding. First impressions of the Lightning Stoplight and SZA Imagery were also positive, with forecasters finding the Stoplight tool easy to understand and message to partners.

I showed an example of some SZA imagery on CIRA-SLIDER from this morning of river valley fog in the Northeast US. When comparing with traditional imagery and the Nighttime Microphysics RGB, forecasters reacted positively to the 'brighter' SZA imagery and expressed the difficulties of transitioning from day to night when observing fog from their respective home CWAs.

SZA Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB

Regular Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB

Nighttime Microphysics RGB

After talking about the GeoXO GXI in our focus group, our forecast discussion for the day sent us back to the Cheyenne, WY (CYS) and Rapid City, SD (UNR) NWS offices to monitor developing storms along a cold front. Forecasters were also assigned mock-IDSS events in Fort Laramie, WY and Sturgis, SD.

1 PM

Similar to Monday, shortly after operations began SPC issued an MD for our area followed by a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In the CYS office (still without a radar), discussion focused on their mock-IDSS event and the timing of lightning activity within the event's range ring. With thunderstorms developing upstream of the site, timing dominated the conversation and the forecasters talked about how the LightningCast dashboard helped identify trends, especially if the partner needed more time to execute their safety plans.

The forecasters also looked at OCTANE, and noted that the the MESO Cloud-Top Cooling products showed a decreasing intensity trend while the CONUS CTC product appeared relatively steady.

3PM

The UNR office frequently viewed OCTANE products today, with several severe thunderstorm warnings issued today. Their mock-IDSS site appeared to 'miss' the storms today, but we'll see what they say tomorrow!

I plan to show this to the forecasters tomorrow to get their thoughts. Sorry for spamming the blog with SZA imagery.

-Kevin

Orographic Thunderstorms and Downbursts over Southeastern Wyoming

 Convective Initiation (1900 UTC)

The afternoon of 1 June 2026 has been convectively productive over and east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado. The 1900 UTC composite satellite image in Figure 1 below captures the early afternoon development of a complex of strong, orographically-forced and high-based thunderstorms. These cells initially fired over the Rocky Mountain Front Range of southeastern Wyoming. As the system advected east-northeastward, satellite and MRMS data indicated rapid storm intensification, characterized by sharply cooling, ice-phase cloud tops and a significant surge in lightning flash rates. 

Figure 1: Composite SZA cloud phase distinction, MRMS reflectivity, and LightningCast probability product image at 1900 UTC 1 June 2026.

Linear Organization & Downburst Signatures (2006 UTC)

By 2006 UTC, the convection underwent a clear structural evolution into a downburst-producing thunderstorm system. The previously disorganized multicell clusters organized into a short-segment linear complex. Key Feature: The satellite presentation highlights a prominent rear-flank dry-air notch, which is a classic morphological signature of severe downburst potential as mid-level dry air is entrained into the storm's downdraft. Surface Observation: Validating this remote sensing presentation, a severe 52-knot downburst wind gust was recorded at the surface in Bordeaux, WY, at 1958 UTC, just minutes before this satellite scan.

Figure 2. Composite SZA cloud phase distinction, MRMS reflectivity, and LightningCast probability product image at 2006 UTC 1 June 2026.

Figure 3. Comparison between the GOES-19 (G19) sounding retrieval and the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model sounding at 1800 UTC 1 June 2026.

Thermodynamic Environment: Cheyenne Soundings (1800 UTC)

To understand the atmospheric mechanics driving these downbursts, we can analyze the 1800 UTC thermodynamic environment over Cheyenne, WY in Figures 3 and 4. A comparison between the GOES-19 (G19) sounding retrieval and the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model sounding reveals a prominent "hourglass-inverted-V" profile in the lower and mid-troposphere—a textbook thermodynamic setup for evaporatively cooled, severe convective wind gusts.

The associated Wind Gust Potential (WGP) derived from these profiles showed values ranging from 39.2 knots (G19) to 44.5 knots (RAP), which closely aligns with the observed severe gusts in the region.

Regional Corroboration: Denver ACARS Profile (1647 UTC)

Further corroborating the regional environmental setup is an ACARS vertical sounding profile retrieved at 1647 UTC from Denver, CO  (Denver International Airport). When compared to the Cheyenne RAP model sounding, the Denver ACARS data demonstrates excellent structural agreement across the Front Range boundary layer. Specifically, the profile highlights highly favorable wet-bulb zero heights and substantial Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE), confirming a widespread optimal thermodynamic environment for the robust downburst generation observed throughout the afternoon.

Figure 4. Comparison between the Denver, CO ACARS sounding profile at 1647 UTC and the Cheyenne, WY Rapid Refresh (RAP) model sounding at 1800 UTC 1 June 2026.

StormRangerWX

A High-OCTANE Way to Start the HWT

 The first day of our Satellite HWT threw us up against the ultimate satellite forecasting challenge - how to analyze severe convection while the local radar is out of service. Specifically, KCYS is out of commission this afternoon while convection is developing off of the Laramie Range.

This presents an interesting challenge for the newest version of LightningCast. LightningCast V1 is a purely satellite-based product that uses four different satellite channels to determine the likelihood of an updraft producing lightning in the next 60 minutes. We’re here this week in part to test Version 2, which uses those same methods but is also trained on several years worth of MRMS isothermal reflectivity at the -10C level. Here’s the issue, though: if KCYS is out of commission, then the closest radar (KFTG) is shooting at 21,000 feet for the 0.5 degree reflectivity scan over Wheatland, Wyoming!

With that in mind, here’s the legacy LightningCast (left panel) vs LightningCast V2 (right panel) as an updraft developed off of the Laramie Range today.

Figure 1: LightningCast probabilities valid at 18:16 UTC on June 1, 2026

Notably, the first lightning strikes came in about 15-20 minutes after the above screenshot. The MRMS-based LightningCast was, if anything, a little more conservative than its no-radar ancestor. It also was struggling to display any reflectivity. You never want to infer a causal relationship based off of one case, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the two are connected.

In another exciting introduction to satellite-based mesoanalysis tools, we got a good look at OCTANE speed/direction tools, which allow us to directly measure the motion of cloud layers that may not be accessible to satellite (eg, the anvil). Below, we are looking at a cluster of severe thunderstorms near Chugwater, Wyoming.

Figure 2: OCTANE Direction product on June 1, 2026

The sharp gradient in greens and oranges is suggestive of divergence within the thunderstorm anvil region - which we would expect to see in an updraft that is evacuating mass toward the tropopause. Even more interestingly, one can see the arced band of inflow clouds/HCRs extending well back into western Nebraska, not just as they feed into the storms, but also as they are literally bent inward by the pressure perturbations. The red hues to the feeder clouds in Nebraska is suggestive of a motion from the southeast, while closer to Chugwater those feeder clouds moved more from the south. We thus know that the thunderstorms are exhibiting a mesoscale influence on their environment.

-Sabrina Carpenter

Rapid cooling visible with developing supercells.

 Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms were shown to be developing from Fort Collins south and through the Denver metropolitan area. When overlaid with other products, I noticed how LightningCast v2 was able to catch on to some of these rapidly cooling cloud tops faster than v1. The contrast of the strong convection vs weak was very helpful in determining which cells were going to become severe or not as well as which mature supercells were maintaining strength or weakening.

Fig 1. Rapidly cooling cloud tops and several mature supercells shown developing across the Denver metro.

Cloudius

Overview: Week 3, Day 1

 Week 3 kicks off today and the ridge that stymied us in week two is....still there! Thankfully we've recovered a good bit of moisture across the plains and southeast for convection to work with. We began today with product introductions and an orientation session, followed by our forecast discussion to decide where we would target today. The forecast was pretty clean cut, with two options of elevated convection in NE Colorado/SE Wyoming and additional convection from a remnant MCS across Mississippi/Arkansas. Based on timing of CI, instability in the high plains, and the size of the MesoAnywhere domain, we decided to localized to the NWS offices of Cheyenne, WY (CYS) and Boulder, CO (BOU).

1 PM

SPC issued an MD just before operations began for our area, citing thunderstorm development and a high chance for a watch to be issued later. And by 2pm we had a watch!

 

In the CYS office, forecasters looked at synthetic GXI imagery and identifying the moisture advection northward into their CWA later in the forecast period. This also led to the discovery that a few of the procedures had 'inverted' color maps for WVT. While not intended, we did compare how they looked from each color map. Which is better? You decide!

Original colormap. Dry air/clouds are white, moisture is dark.

'Flipped' color map. Dry air/clouds are black, moisture is light.

First impressions of SZA from this morning's imagery was positive with forecasters in both the CYS and BOU offices. A forecaster with experience in AK said they regularly adjust brightness of visible imagery on the fly, especially in lower light seasons. A forecaster with more experience in the central plains said they rarely adjust the brightness. Some of the areas we examined included over Colorado and Montana. Forecasters mentioned using the DCPD RGB frequently, and having more time with that imagery would be welcome. Additionally, one mentioned liking that the colors stayed more consistent throughout the day.

Forecasters in the CYS office compared LightningCast v1 and v2 from GOES-East and GOES-West along with the timing of the first lightning flash. V2 introduced more heterogenety in the bands, while V1 appeared fairly uniofrm and more widespread. Also LightningCast v2 seemed to be ahead of v1 for thunderstorm growth over the Denver metro.

3 PM

Both offices issued severe thunderstorm warnings for severe wind and hail hazards. Looking ahead, we have a steady stream of SLGTs this week, so we should stay fairly active. Also wanted to noted the CYS radar was out today, so some questions about using Sat data (especially things like OCTANE) for warnings are of interest for the morning discussion tomorrow.

-Kevin

SPG Blog Post Day 4

Today’s Set-up: Strong low pressure system moves through the region, with associated cold front. Slight risk over northern Texas, Oklahoma panhandle, and western Kansas. I was simulating the Dodge City office today. Their primary threats were severe wind gusts from an incredibly deep inverted V sounding, and some possible small hail.

Figure 1: LightningCast Viewer  

• Got more experience with the LightningCast dashboards. I got the events pulled up fine, and I found myself pulling the dashboards up to get a quick visual on trends, and which site was more at threat.
• This helps me, as a forecaster, get an idea on which event needs to be notified before the other. AKA - which event is the priority, based on the ongoing weather.
• I explored some of the options that you can overlay on LightningCast viewer
• Having METARs pulled up is VERY helpful for getting some ground truth to what I am looking at on satellite and radar.
• I also appreciated having the SPC outlooks overlaid in the back, to have a quick guide for where is favorable for severe weather.

Figure 2: GXI-ALL Procedure

• On a day like today, with a pretty strong frontal system and dry air in a lot of places, the GXI products worked well at highlighting the moisture ahead of the front. You can pretty clearly see the boundary moving through the CONUS.
• I did not get much help when looking at the CWA level view, but looking at the “big picture” CONUS view was significantly more useful for me in operations today.

Figure 3: CONUS Octane Speed Product

• This image was earlier in the operations period, and I thought it was interesting to see that the speed was all relatively uniform. We’re used to looking for plenty of speed and directional shear in severe weather, but here most systems were moving around 30kts or so.

Figure 4: CONUS OCTANE CTC

• I took a peek at cloud top cooling for some of these storms, and they were very cold (~-55C).
• I saw that the office to the south issued warnings based on that (shoutout!) and I looked into it a bit more, and realized we had even colder cloudtops. After radar analysis and further satellite, along with trying to find some ground truth, I put a warning out for the eastern portion of the CWA.

-Kelvin-Helm